Demographics


Population Profile

Population In Radius

Population Projections

Population Projections by Age


Population Profile

October 1997

In 1980, the combined population of Winchester-Frederick County was 54,367, with Winchester having a population of 20,217 and Frederick County a population of 34,150. In 1990, the total had increased to 67,670, a 24% increase. Of the 1990 population count, Winchester tallied 21,947 people, an 8% increase and Frederick County had 45,723 people, a 33% increase.

AGE DISTRIBUTION         Winchester and Frederick County

            1980    % TOTAL          1990    % TOTAL   % CHANGE 
Under 5    3,710     6.8%           5,001      7.4%     34.8% 
5 to 17   11,554    21.3%          11,938     17.6%      3.3% 
18 to 24   6,564    12.1%           6,821     10.1%      3.9% 
25 to 44  15,568    28.6%          22,837     33.7%     46.7% 
45 to 64  11,131    20.5%          13,419     19.8%     20.6% 
65 & over  5,840    10.7%           7,654     11.3%     31.1% 

The average age of people living in Winchester-Frederick County increased only slightly. The median age of the population in 1990 was 33 years compared with 31 years in 1980. The median age in the County has remained close to the median age for the Commonwealth as a whole (32.6 yrs) and the USA (32.8). In terms of the percentage rate of population growth, Frederick County was the eleventh fastest growing county in Virginia during the 1980's and Winchester was the eleventh fastest growing city in Virginia during the 1980's.

Winchester and Frederick County have approximately the same racial diversity as the Planning District as a whole; White 95.3%; Black 3.9%; Hispanic 0.8% and other 0.2%. Likewise, percentages of male and female are identical to the Planning District; 49% male and 51% female.

In 1980 barely 50% of the population over age 18 had high school diplomas. In 1990 that figure rose dramatically to over 70%.

Source: US Bureau of Census; 1990.


Population in Radius

Around Winchester/Frederick County

January 1998

RADIUS		POPULATION		INCLUDES

10 mile		   60,200	Winchester City and most of
				Frederick County.

20 mile		  160,900	Front Royal and Warren County and
				begins to overlap into West Virginia's
				Berkeley and Jefferson Counties.

30 mile		  240,971	Martinsburg, WV. This figure is the
				result of a multi-state research effort
				completed July 1993.

40 mile		  561,500	Most of Lord Fairfax Planning District
				(LFPD); parts of Frederick, Allegany,
				and Washington Counties in Maryland;
				about half of Fauquier and most of 
				Loudoun Counties to the east.

50 mile		1,391,900	1/3 of Montgomery County, MD, most
				of Fairfax County VA, Manassas,
				Culpeper, and all of Lord Fairfax  PD.

60 mile		2,709,335	Part of Washington DC, and begins to
				encompass Adams, Fulton, and
				Franklin counties in Pennsylvania.

States of residence subtotals:

Miles	     VA		    WVA		MD	   PA	      TOTALS
 10	   60,211					       60,211
 20	  110,041	 50,853				      160,894
 30	  121,497	119,474				      240,971
 40	  263,338	128.317	       169,865		      561,520
 50	  679,293	134.782	       551,335	   26,535   1,391,945
 60	1,344,062	145,210	     1,117,643	  102,420   2,709,335

Source: These figures were derived from the 1990 Census and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis by the staff of the Lord Fairfax Planning District Commission


Population Projections

October 1997


                                  1960      1970      1980      1990

Clarke                            7,942      8,102      9,965     12,101
Frederick                        21,941     24,107     34,150     45,723
Winchester                       15,110     19,429     20,217     21,947
Winchester-Frederick Co          37,051     43,536     54,367     67,670
Page                             15,572     16,581     19,401     21,690
Shenandoah                       21,825     22,852     27,559     31,636
Warren                           14,655     15,301     21,200     26,142
Lord Fairfax Planning Dist       97,045    106,372    132,429    159,239
Virginia                      3,954,429  4,651,448  5,346,818  6,189,307

                                  1997      2000      2010

Clarke                           12,900     13,995     16,111
Frederick                        54,500     55,823     64,878
Winchester                       22,800     24,113     26,234
Winchester-Frederick Co          77,300     79,936     91,112
Page                             23,000     23,663     25,237
Shenandoah                       35,600     35,021     38,077
Warren                           29,200     30,995     35,977
Lord Fairfax Planning Dist      178,000    183,610    206,514
Virginia                      6,734,000  6,896,557  7,451,158

1970 counts for Frederick County and Winchester City adjusted to reflect the 1971 annexation.

The 1990 census counts include all revisions received by the University of Virginia Center for Public Service as of 12/31/92.

The 1997 estimates are rounded to the nearest 100.

Sources:
1997 estimates from "Estimates of Population of Virginia Counties and Cities," University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990 figures are from US Bureau of Census for those census years.

2000 and 2010 from "Virginia Population Projections 2010," Virginia Employment Commission, Aug. 1993.

Population Projections by Age

Frederick County

AGE 	1980	1990	AGE	1980	1990

0-4	2483	3475	45-49	1939	3003
5-9	2744	3531	50-54	1723	2406
10-14	3168	3280	55-59	1665	2057
15-19	3288	3136	60-64	1287	1828
20-24	2618	2885	65-69	1080	1614
25-29	2787	3982	70-74	 747	1157
30-34	2994	4338	75-79	 471	 755
35-39	2556	3882	80-84	 273	 434
40-44	2111	3611	85+	 216	 349

TOTAL	     			34,150	45,723

AGE	2000	2010	AGE	2000	2010	(PROJECTED)

0-4	3647	4066	45-49	4197	5421
5-9	4272	4397	50-54	3846	5022
10-14	4320	4414	55-59	2943	4031
15-19	3758	4519	60-64	2403	3766
20-24	2802	3725	65-69	1881	2684
25-29	3507	4178	70-74	1556	2022
30-34	4460	4281	75-79	1120	1260
35-39	5125	4532	80-84	 615	 825
40-44	4845	4973	85+	 526	 762


TOTAL	     			55,823	64,878
Sources: Virginia Emplopyment Commission ALICE On-Line UVA Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

Population Projections by Age

Winchester City

AGE 	1980	1990	AGE	1980	1990

0-4	1227	1526	45-49	1002	1116
5-9	1135	1296	50-54	1243	958
10-14	1345	1214	55-59	1177	960
15-19	1738	1378	60-64	1095	1091
20-24	2082	2039	65-69	 983	1048
25-29	1627	2135	70-74	 808	 858
30-34	1423	1802	75-79	 606	 669
35-39	1059	1608	80-84	 372	 433
40-44	1011	1479	85+	 284	 337


TOTAL	     			20,217	21,947


AGE	2000	2010	AGE	2000	2010	(PROJECTED)

0-4	1656	1773	45-49	1675	1957
5-9	1861	1790	50-54	1427	1812
10-14	1545	1645	55-59	1062	1588
15-19	1583	2109	60-64	 857	1255
20-24	1815	2223	65-69	 860	 959
25-29	1684	1855	70-74	 859	 669
30-34	1863	1686	75-79	 737	 593
35-39	1865	1450	80-84	 471	 485
40-44	1885	1939	85+	 408	 446


TOTAL	     			24,113	26,234
Sources: Virginia Emplopyment Commission ALICE On-Line UVA Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

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© 1998 Winchester/Frederick County Economic Development Commission
Revised Jan 16, 1998